Sunday, July 8, 2007

12 points to remember in the 12th season of the Big 12

Dave Matter of the Columbia Tribune pens an excellent piece on 12 intriguing stories in the Big 12 in the upcoming 12th season of play.

Matter's points (which my comments following in parenthesis):

  • 12. Remember the Alamo(dome): San Antonio’s Alamodome plays host to its third Big 12 championship game and its first since 1999. (With a weak Big 12 North, Nebraska might once again represent their division, as they did in the previous two trips to San Antonio, in 1997 & 1999.)
  • 11. Is it finally the Year of the Tiger?: Missouri fans have waited since 1969 for a conference championship. These days, they’d be happy with a division title. But with quarterback Chase Daniel throwing to a variety pack of receivers as good as any in the nation - plus a favorable schedule - this might be Missouri’s best chance to capture the North Division. (I'd love to see Missouri win the North, but I'm not yet sold on their defense.)
  • 10. Golden receivers: No other conference has a wide receiver trio better than Texas’ Limas Sweed, Oklahoma’s Malcolm Kelly and Oklahoma State’s Adarius Bowman. Add Missouri’s Will Franklin into the mix - plus his tight end teammates disguised as wideouts, Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman - and the Big 12 might be home to the best pass-catchers in the country. (I don't think Sweed is the best WR on his own team, and think Rucker & Coffman are actually inside receivers disguised as TEs - I never see them block anyone.)
  • 9. Sam I Am: Nebraska’s Sam Keller, the country’s most celebrated and scrutinized Division I transfer, has one season to salvage his career. Keller and his NFL arm left a messy situation at Arizona State last year. In Lincoln, he replaces Big 12 player of the year Zac Taylor with the weight of Husker Nation riding on every pass he throws this fall. (Let's be honest: Zac Taylor might have been the most mediocre Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year in the 11 year history of the conference, as well as probably the most undeserving. He had a weak arm, and was just as likely to throw an interception as he was a pass to his own teammates. It won't take much for Keller to make fans forget Taylor; one game without a turnover ought to be enough.)
  • 8. Ron Prince, Act II: Kansas State probably overachieved a bit last season, winning seven games despite starting freshman quarterback Josh Freeman in eight games during Ron Prince’s first season as a head coach. (By beating texas and going to a bowl, I'd say they most definitely overachieved in Prince's first season at K-State. Their upset win over texas gave Prince a signature win in his rookie year as a head coach. If they win 7-8 games this season, and go to another bowl, Prince will have them headed in the right direction.)
  • 7. Dan Hawkins, Act II: Early on, more eyes will be on Dan Hawkins’ second season at Colorado, but only because CU’s brutal nonconference schedule includes nationally televised games against Colorado State, Arizona State and Florida State. (Buff fans aren't going to want to hear this, but even a 5-win season will be a dramatic improvement for Colorado this season. The good news is the Big 12 North is still fairly weak as a division; the bad news is that Colorado is part of that weakness.)
  • 6. After Adrian: Just how does Oklahoma replace superstar running back Adrian Peterson, the seventh pick in the NFL draft? That’s easy. The Sooners have done it already. Backup Allen Patrick carried the load just fine when Peterson suffered a broken collarbone last fall, leading OU to victories in all five of his starts. (This has already been covered; the Sooners have their replacement for Peterson in Allen Patrick. The question for OU isn't who will carry the ball; their questions are at QB.)
  • 5. A September to remember: In recent years, Big 12 athletic directors came together to beef up their nonconference schedules, collectively adding series against some of the premier teams in the country. Gone are the cupcake slates of years past. This year, Kansas State plays at Auburn, Oklahoma State goes to Georgia and both Oklahoma and Texas A&M face Miami. Nebraska takes on the mother of all nonconference foes, playing host to national champion favorite USC. (Actually, since nonconference games are scheduled years in advance, Matter is giving Big 12 ADs credit for work that was done years ago. Reporters read too much into nonconference schedules, because you don't know four years prior, when you schedule the game, if that team will be a powerhouse when you play them, or an also-ran rebuilding under a new coaching staff. They give too much credit for playing teams on the upswing of the success cycle, and too much blame for playing teams who have fallen on hard times.)
  • 4. Gene therapy: The only new head coach in the league is no stranger to the Big 12. Iowa State brought in Texas co-defensive coordinator Gene Chizik to inject some energy into a program that couldn’t sustain the mild success generated by Dan McCarney. (The only head coaching hire in the Big 12 this off-season was also the worst head coaching hire this off-season. Chizik showed an ability to succeed when talent was already there at Auburn and texas, but struggled defending the pass last season. I think Chizik was overrated as a defensive coordinator; his weaknesses were exposed repeatedly by Franchione.)
  • 3. Young guns: Question: Which conference has more talent at quarterback than the Big 12?
    Answer: The AFC.
    A year ago, the conference was full of question marks under center. Now, it’s flooded with superstars. Texas sophomore Colt McCoy is the favorite to earn preseason league honors, but he’ll have competition for the postseason award from Missouri’s Daniel, Texas A&M’s Stephen McGee and Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell. Don’t forget Oklahoma State’s electric junior Bobby Reid, K-State’s budding Freeman and Iowa State’s Meyer, the most experienced quarterback in the league. (People are giving Colt McCoy a lot of hype for a QB who didn't even average 200 yards passing per game last season. The argument for best QB in the Big 12 starts with Chase Daniel and Stephen McGee, and then goes from there.)
  • 2. Heat is on: In four years at Texas A&M, Dennis Franchione has gone just 25-23. That’s not good enough considering his hefty salary and the enormous expectations in College Station. Will another seven-win season be enough to keep Fran around? The leash won’t be any longer for Baylor’s Guy Morriss, a likable guy who’s led a dismal program to just 15 wins in four seasons. And what about Kansas’ Mark Mangino? He’s had a few big wins, but he’s still 10 games under .500 after five years in Lawrence. Will Lew Perkins settle for another bowl-less December? (After 4 seasons and $7.7 million paid out in salary, Fran needs to deliver at least a 10 win season and a conference championship, or find another job. Guy Morriss should get Baylor to a bowl game, or be sent packing. Mangino may be the most secure of the three; if they can cut down on turnovers, they'll win enough games to make a bowl game, and he should be around another season.)
  • 1. Changes all around: The most significant news in the Big 12 probably won’t happen on the field this year. The times, they are a-changing, and the future of the conference could be at stake. Who will succeed outgoing Commissioner Kevin Weiberg, and how will his or her vision of the conference affect the Big 12 dynamics? (I always viewed Weiberg as largely ineffective, and a poor leader. I hope our next conference commissioner has a vision for the Big 12 that extends beyond television coverage on the Versus network.)

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